Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $251,338$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(7.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,343.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(303,343.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,861$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,943.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,943.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,460$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,731$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(6.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,532.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(45,532.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,156$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(333 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,985.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,985.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,129$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,032,913$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,556,570.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,556,570.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $49,976$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,691.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(60,691.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $406,158$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $236,748$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{703,672.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(703,672.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,295$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,496.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(36,496.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,844$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,512$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,441.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,441.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $740$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(19 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,532.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,532.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,686$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,454$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,853.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181,853.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,148$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(65.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,568.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(21,568.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,271$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,204$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(494 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $992$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(61.9 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,310.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,310.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,006$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $303$ on 2020-06-20
Best fit exponential: \(0.0354 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{376.8}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 91.3)}}\) (asimptote \(376.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $221$ on 2020-06-20
