Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $251,338$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,343.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(303,343.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,861$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,943.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,943.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,460$ on 2020-06-20

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,731$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,532.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(45,532.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,156$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(333 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,985.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,985.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,129$ on 2020-06-20

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032,913$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,556,570.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,556,570.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49,976$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,691.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(60,691.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $406,158$ on 2020-06-20

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $236,748$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{703,672.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(703,672.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,295$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,496.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(36,496.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,844$ on 2020-06-20

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,512$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,441.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,441.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $740$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(19 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,532.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,532.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,686$ on 2020-06-20

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,454$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,853.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181,853.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,148$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(65.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,568.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(21,568.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,271$ on 2020-06-20

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,204$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(494 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $992$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(61.9 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,310.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,310.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,006$ on 2020-06-20

Suriname

Population $586,632$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $303$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(0.0354 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{376.8}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 91.3)}}\) (asimptote \(376.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-20

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $221$ on 2020-06-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Uruguay recovered 94%
Paraguay recovered 11%

Uruguay

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $859$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(290 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{837.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(837.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 26.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-06-20

Paraguay

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,362$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,444.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,444.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 21.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $558$ on 2020-06-20